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02 March 2014 @ 02:02 pm
Academy Awards Predictions Post  
I'm not tremendously enthused about the Oscars this year, just because I haven't seen so many of the movies and don't really have a horse in this race, but I like to make my guesses every year anyway.  Let's see how I do!

Best Picture: Gravity.  I think the tech votes will be enough to swing victory its way.  But 12 Years a Slave is a close second.  The fact that they tied for PGA makes this very hard to call.
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey.  In the bag.  But Bruce Dern as potential dark horse - he's been around a long time.
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett.  In the bag.  She's had this sewn up for half a year.
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto.  I'd say he's almost as much a lock as Cate, to be honest.  But Barkhad Abdi is a dark horse, as well.  His BAFTA win did come as a result of Leto not being nominated, but I think it does signify how much support he has.
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o.  I just don't see Jennifer Lawrence winning back-to-back, and the other three nominees aren't even in the conversation.
Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón.  His DGA win translates directly, I think, and they'll especially want to award his technical achievement if Gravity doesn't take home BP.

Best Animated Feature: Frozen.  Sigh.  They always go with the "biggest" movie in this category.
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki.  I'm not sure how much of his cinematography is actually "his" and not just CGI, but Gravity's production had to be such a collaborative environment it's hard to distinguish what is what.  Poor Roger Deakins, though.
Best Costume Design: There's no clear historical prestige film this year, which is usually your winner.  I'm going with The Great Gatsby.
Best Documentary Feature: The Square.  The Act of Killing is probably actually the best, but it was so difficult to watch, and so emotionally draining, that I can see voters going elsewhere.  20 Feet from Stardom is right up there, too; more "feel-good."
Best Documentary Short: Last year I watched a lot of the shorts, but I didn't find the time to this year.  I'm guessing The Lady in Number 6.

Best Film Editing: Gravity had so many long takes, I can see a lot of voters thinking "well they didn't even edit that movie!" not understanding what editing actually is.  Captain Phillips.
Best Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty.
Best Make-up and Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club, by process of elimination.
Best Original Score: Her, by William Butler and Owen Pallett.
Best Production Design: American Hustle.  Because 70s?

Best Animated Short Film: Get a Horse!  Because it ran before Frozen.
Best Live Action Short Film: Helium.  Because guessing!
Best Sound Editing: Captain Phillips.
Best Sound Mixing: Gravity.  The last two categories I always miss on, because I always assume the voters actually know what sound editing and sound mixing are, and they probably don't.
Best Visual Effects: Gravity.  This is as much a lock as Cate.

Best Song: Let It Go.  I'd rather Happy, but the Frozen song is going to win.
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave.  Though Philomena might sneak in.
Best Original Screenplay: Her, but I wouldn't be surprised to see American Hustle.

Out of 24 picks, I'm aiming for 15.  I'll just update this post later rather than making a new one.

I got 18/24, which isn't bad at all.  I underestimated how many techs would go to Gravity - which I did a few years ago with Hugo, too.  Need to remember that they end up just voting down the line for one movie than actually thinking about each individual award.  (Which is not to say that Gravity isn't deserving, but that tends to be what happens.)  I was feeling pretty good about my against-the-grain Gravity for BP pick up until the very last minute, because of all the tech wins.

Pretty excited about correctly guessing 2/3 shorts.  You really just need to read the descriptions sometimes to know what they're going to go with!

It was a rather dreadfully boring show, unfortunately.  I am glad they cut down on most of the random montages and such; the couple they had weren't bad, were relatively short, though I was a bit flummoxed by P!nk singing a tribute to The Wizard of Oz.  No real fashion mis-steps; I'll probably have to go with Angelina as my best-dressed, because she really pulls off those grande dame full-sleeved dresses.
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Martine: Hannibal/Will+Beverlyla_loony on March 3rd, 2014 11:49 am (UTC)
You weren't so bad I think :D I'm with you on Frozen, I haven't even seen the film but can't stand it for the obvious lack in trying to make the characters look at least a little different to Tangled and mostly because they butchered Andersens 'Snowqueen' for this which is a great story on it's own and needed none of the changes they made. Also Happy is just one of my favourite songs ever because it really makes me happy (and the performance was awesome imo, as a friend of mine said in chat 'well he is bringing the party to everybody^^').

Also unrealted note, just watched Hannibal season opener and OMG I'm amazed.
Shannon: hannibalkungfuwaynewho on March 3rd, 2014 02:28 pm (UTC)
I was so impressed with the Hannibal premiere, and it's kind of scary to think that everyone says that it doesn't even compare to what's coming this season. I get goosebumps just thinking about it!
Martine: PD/Emerson OMGla_loony on March 3rd, 2014 04:25 pm (UTC)
*iz even more excited now*
I hope the rumours I read were true that Lee Pace will guest star and that Fuller is trying to get other Pushing Daisies alumns on Hannibal.
Shannon: leslie omgkungfuwaynewho on March 4th, 2014 04:27 pm (UTC)
I would die if they got Lee Pace. I would also die if they managed to get David Bowie. Die!
Martine: PD/Emerson shovella_loony on March 4th, 2014 09:23 pm (UTC)
I just checked Lee and Anna are not very likely (for season 2 at least). He has been so busy with The Hobbit and Guardians and is currently shooting a show for AMC. So we need a third season (or a miracle) so he can appear. Anna is cast in something too, can't remember the namexD
But the Olive actress (I always write her name wrongxD) is still someone Fuller would like to have on the show and there is no official No yet.
And I think he'll wait with the role he has for Bowie until he has time to come on the show, so I hope this happens.
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Shannon: tng picard starskungfuwaynewho on March 3rd, 2014 02:30 pm (UTC)
I haven't seen Frozen yet, so I can't say between the two films, but between the songs? "Let It Go" just sounded so generic compared with Happy. I've been really unimpressed with Disney songs lately. I listen to them, immediately forget the melody or anything else about them.

The writers were super-cute getting their award, though.
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Shannon: miranda gary pillowkungfuwaynewho on March 4th, 2014 04:28 pm (UTC)
Yeah, of the BP nominees I have only seen Gravity and Captain Phillips. I really wanted to see Her but it never opened anywhere terribly close; it was here in KC, but I would have had to drive like 30-40 minutes, and sometimes that just makes going to see a movie an extra chore.
Halima: ★ na'chas du'venacartography on March 4th, 2014 07:00 am (UTC)
Man, I love Let it Go (and Frozen). I didn't watch the Oscars, just wanted to leave this here. ;) You should definitely give it a try, though!
Shannonkungfuwaynewho on March 4th, 2014 04:29 pm (UTC)
I'll likely see Frozen when it comes out on DVD. Sadly I often treat the Oscars like a sporting event, which means I have to arbitrarily pick folks to root against, even if that makes no sense and I end up liking those movies later. I just feel like Pixar/Disney makes it so that no one else ever even has a shot of winning in those categories, especially the weird 2D foreign animated films.