Best Picture: Gravity. I think the tech votes will be enough to swing victory its way. But 12 Years a Slave is a close second. The fact that they tied for PGA makes this very hard to call.
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey. In the bag. But Bruce Dern as potential dark horse - he's been around a long time.
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett. In the bag. She's had this sewn up for half a year.
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto. I'd say he's almost as much a lock as Cate, to be honest. But Barkhad Abdi is a dark horse, as well. His BAFTA win did come as a result of Leto not being nominated, but I think it does signify how much support he has.
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o. I just don't see Jennifer Lawrence winning back-to-back, and the other three nominees aren't even in the conversation.
Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón. His DGA win translates directly, I think, and they'll especially want to award his technical achievement if Gravity doesn't take home BP.
Best Animated Feature: Frozen. Sigh. They always go with the "biggest" movie in this category.
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki. I'm not sure how much of his cinematography is actually "his" and not just CGI, but Gravity's production had to be such a collaborative environment it's hard to distinguish what is what. Poor Roger Deakins, though.
Best Costume Design: There's no clear historical prestige film this year, which is usually your winner. I'm going with The Great Gatsby.
Best Documentary Feature: The Square. The Act of Killing is probably actually the best, but it was so difficult to watch, and so emotionally draining, that I can see voters going elsewhere. 20 Feet from Stardom is right up there, too; more "feel-good."
Best Documentary Short: Last year I watched a lot of the shorts, but I didn't find the time to this year. I'm guessing The Lady in Number 6.
Best Film Editing: Gravity had so many long takes, I can see a lot of voters thinking "well they didn't even edit that movie!" not understanding what editing actually is. Captain Phillips.
Best Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty.
Best Make-up and Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club, by process of elimination.
Best Original Score: Her, by William Butler and Owen Pallett.
Best Production Design: American Hustle. Because 70s?
Best Animated Short Film: Get a Horse! Because it ran before Frozen.
Best Live Action Short Film: Helium. Because guessing!
Best Sound Editing: Captain Phillips.
Best Sound Mixing: Gravity. The last two categories I always miss on, because I always assume the voters actually know what sound editing and sound mixing are, and they probably don't.
Best Visual Effects: Gravity. This is as much a lock as Cate.
Best Song: Let It Go. I'd rather Happy, but the Frozen song is going to win.
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave. Though Philomena might sneak in.
Best Original Screenplay: Her, but I wouldn't be surprised to see American Hustle.
Out of 24 picks, I'm aiming for 15. I'll just update this post later rather than making a new one.
I got 18/24, which isn't bad at all. I underestimated how many techs would go to Gravity - which I did a few years ago with Hugo, too. Need to remember that they end up just voting down the line for one movie than actually thinking about each individual award. (Which is not to say that Gravity isn't deserving, but that tends to be what happens.) I was feeling pretty good about my against-the-grain Gravity for BP pick up until the very last minute, because of all the tech wins.
Pretty excited about correctly guessing 2/3 shorts. You really just need to read the descriptions sometimes to know what they're going to go with!
It was a rather dreadfully boring show, unfortunately. I am glad they cut down on most of the random montages and such; the couple they had weren't bad, were relatively short, though I was a bit flummoxed by P!nk singing a tribute to The Wizard of Oz. No real fashion mis-steps; I'll probably have to go with Angelina as my best-dressed, because she really pulls off those grande dame full-sleeved dresses.